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Mikael Krogerus, Roman Tschappeler: The Decision Book; Fifty models for strategic thinking

Decision making models fulfil the following criteria: they simplify, they sum up, they are visual, they are methods.

Improving our self

The Eisenhower matrix:

How to work more efficiently. Define activities based on important and urgent matrix.

Important, but not urgent (decide when you will do it) Important and urgent (do it imme-diately)
Not important, not urgent (do it la-tter) Not important, but urgent (delega- te to somebody else)

The SWOT analysis:

Based on Stanford University study from the 1960s.

Strengths Opportunities
Weaknesses Threats

The BCG box:

In 1970s developed by BCG to assess investments. Estimation is done based on market growth and relative market share.

Question marks (or problem childr- en) High growth, low market share. Tough decision, lot of support needed to be turned into stars. Stars High growth, high market share. Hope is that stars will turn into cash cows. These are invest-ment opportunities
Dogs Low growth, low market share. Only keep if they have some other value. If not liquidate. Cash cows Low growth, high market share. They should not cost a lot, but promise high re – turn. Milk them.

The Project portfolio matrix:

You always have several projects that run in parallel, so it is important that you define their priorities. If you want to check where you are you can do cost and time matrix. If you want to see how they are improving you, you can check based on how much you are learning from them and how much they support your overall vision.

The Feedback analysis:

Peter Drucker suggested method of writing down expectations and check their realization in one year, to see what kind of gaps there will be and to learn about your ability to predict.

The John Whitmore model:

Gives you answer if you are pursuing the right goal.

S Specific   THE RIGHT GOAL C Challenging
M Measurable P Positively stated L Legal
A Attainable U Understood E Environmentally sound
R Realistic R Relevant A Agreed
T Time-phased E Ethical R Recorded

The Rubber Band model:

It is based on questions: What is holding me and what is pulling me?

The Feedback Box:

Dealing with other people compliments and criticism.

Advice (I thought it was good, but it still needs to change) Compliment (I thought it was good and it can stay as it is in the future)
Criticism (I thought it was bad and it has to change) Suggestion (I thought it was bad, but I can live with it)

The Yes/No rule:

The Yes/No rule is based on clear parameters.

The Choice overloads:

More is difficult. You should aim for sweet spot between too much and not enough choice. Having no options makes us unhappy. So, does having too many options.

The Gap-in-the-market model:

Model uses three axes to help position competitions according to those three axes, that can represent everything important for certain industry.

The Morphological Box and Scamper:

Innovation can mean doing something completely new, but it can also mean making a new combination of things that already exist. Morphological boxes – new entity is developed by combining the attributes of a variety of existing entities. Scamper checklist – seven questions: substitute, combine, adapt, modify, put to other use, eliminate and reverse.

The Gift Model:

Two axes, how expensive gift is and how valuable is.

Thinking outside the box:

Creating really innovative idea, with going outside our comfort zone.

The Consequence Model:

We are often forced to make decision based on limited information. Even making no decision is decision. If you decide to do so, communicate that clearly.

The Theory of Unconscious Thinking:

Intuition is knowledge that we feel but cannot explain. Unconscious is better at sifting through large amounts of data.

The Stop Rule:

There are two variants of the Stop Rule: non-negotiable and the one with the flexible limit. The Stop Rule is a hard-and-fast, almost universally applicable alternative to the often-tortuous process of weighting up a situation.

The Buyer’s Decision Model:

Establish a research strategy. Lower your expectations. Don’t worry. Let somebody else decide.

How to understand yourself better

The Flow Model:

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi – Happiness or “flow” occurs when we are:

  • intensely focused on an activity
  • of our own choosing, that is
  • neither under-challenging (bore out) not over-challenging (burnout), that has
  • a clear objective, and that receives
  • immediate feedback.

The Johari Window:

What do others know about you, that you don’t know about yourself. It is a model of self-awareness. It is based on relationship what you know about yourself and what others know about you.

What you know about yourself and want to reveal to others What you don’t know about yourself but others do
What you know about yourself, but you don’t want to reveal to others What you don’t know about yourself and others also don’t know (suppressed)

The Cognitive Dissonance Model:

There is usually big gap between what we think and what we do. Our actions are not consistent with our beliefs. Term cognitive dissonance was used by Leon Festinger.

The Unimaginable Model:

We often believe so strongly in models, that they take on the status of reality. Model is based on relationship between imaginable and unimaginable on one line and provable and unprovable on other.

The Uffe Elbaek Model:

If you want to gain a general understanding of yourself or others, that model is great public opinion barometer. You estimate yourself on couples like are you a team player or individual. Are you a body or a brain type of person? Are you global or local player? Are you a format or content player?

The Energy Model:

Are you living in here and now? Estimation about what are you driven from. Memory driven? Dream driven? Or reality driven? You can’t change the past. But you can ruin the present by worrying about the future.

The Political Compass:

Where do you stand in political field – authoritarian or libertarian; left or right.

The Personal Performance Model:

How to recognize whether you should change your job. Model has three categories: have to, able to, want to. You estimate your work based on them and see what tasks are being imposed to you, do they match your capabilities and do you want to do them.

The making-of Model:

If you want to plan your future, you should check how your past developed. Model was created by The Grove consulting agency. It consists of five categories you need to check: your goals, what you learned, obstacles, successes and people.

The Personal Potential Trap:

Model shows three curves: my own expectations, the expectations of others and my achievements. If they diverge too much, you will fall into the personal potential trap.

The Hard Choice Model:

Approaches to decision making based on consequences of decision and comparability of the options.

High comparability, low consequences (No-brainer) High comparability, high consequences (Big choice)
Low comparability and consequences (Apple/Pear decision) Low comparability, high consequences (Hard choice)

Cognitive Bias:

The four mistakes we make in our thinking: the anchor effect, the confirmation error, the availability error and the fast/slow error. All of them should be estimated based on: assumption, reality and solution.

The Crossroads Model:

Where have you come from? What is really important to you? Which people are important to you? What is hindering you? What are you afraid of? Based on that you can have: the road back, the familiar road, the road not traveled, the dream road, the beckoning road and the sensible road.

How to understand others better

The Rumsfeld Matrix:

Risk is what remains after we think we’ve thought about everything. Model used by Donald Rumsfeld based on two categories known and unknown, creating fields: known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns, unknown unknowns.

The Swiss Cheese Model:

Everyone makes mistakes. Some learn from them and some repeat them. There are different types of mistakes: real mistakes, black-outs and slip-ups. There are several levels on which mistakes occur: skill-based, rule-based and knowledge-based. Factors contributing are: people, technical provisions, organizational elements and outside influences.

The Maslow Pyramids:

Things we want most are what we need least. When you are comparing Maslow needs, with what we want, the pyramid is usually turned upside down.

The Sinius Milieu and Bourdieu Models:

Our origins are our future. The Sinius Milieu psychographic method is used for establishing socio-cultural groupings. It is based on social status and orientation graph. Bordieu model is based on economic and cultural capital graph. You should ask yourself where do you position yourself, where are your parents and where do you want to be?

The Double-loop learning Model:

 Observing observers. Trying to break our own patterns. Reflecting on our actions. Model, or better technique, is based on work of Heinz von Foerster and Niklas Luhmann.

The AI model:

Appreciative Inquiry – AI. Based on constructive or destructive estimation and positive or negative approach, you can be either Fault Finder, Dictator, Schoolteacher or AI thinker (positive and constructive).

The Pareto Principle:

Small number of high values contribute more to the total than a high number of low values.

The long-tail Model:

Mass market wants best-seller, but there is also demand for niche products. Individual demand may be low, but collectively the niche products are worth more than the best-sellers.

The Conflict Resolution Model:

You can either: flight, fight, give up, evade responsibility, compromise or reach consensus.

The Black Swan Model:

This is rejection of cause-and-effect principle. Nassim Nicholas Taleb idea that we can’t predict future based on past. When unexpected events happen (black swan), afterwards you can see that you should see them coming. And they move from unimaginable to granted.

The Chasm – The Diffusion Model:

Model of how some ideas, innovations are accepted and others no.

“First they ignore your, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mahatma Gandhi

The Black Box Model:

Why faith is replacing knowledge. Our world is getting more complicated all the time. Complexity and speed of changes is increasing. In the future it will be the norm to convince people with images and emotions, rather than with arguments.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma:

Trust issue. Two prisoners. If they both opt for obvious solution, to trade other for them self, both will get high penalty, if they do nothing, they will get middle and if only one trade other, the one trading will get nothing and the other will get maximum penalty. What would you do?

How to improve others

The Team Model:

When you are setting up your team, first check what skills, expertise and resources you need to do the job and then define what level is needed for all of them and choose your team based on that.

The Hersey-Blanchard Model (Situational Leadership):

How to successfully managed your employee. Instructing, coaching, delegating and supporting.

The Role-playing Model (Belbin & De Bono):

How to change your own point of view. Seven hats of the Bono: white – analytical, red hat – emotional, black – critical, yellow – optimistic, green – creative, blue – structured. Belbin – nine profiles of people: Action oriented – doer, implementer, perfectionist; communication oriented – coordinator, team player, trailblazer; knowledge oriented – innovator, observer and specialist.

The Result Optimization Model:

Each project should be finished three time. First is a draft plan, then refinement and at the end optimization.

The Project Management Triangle:

Why perfection is impossible. Everybody wants good, cheap and fast. In the intersection of all is impossible. Good and cheap is slow. Good and fast is expensive. Fast and cheap is bad. You can only have two.

The Drexler/Sibbet Team Performance Model:

How to turn a group into a team. Development moves in seven steps: orientation, trust building, goal clarification, commitment, high performance and renewal. Up until commitment is creating phase, from then on is sustaining.

The Expectation Model:

Our level of satisfaction increases with expectations, up to a certain point. Over-the-top expectations dampen our happiness.

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